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2024-12-14 11:13:23

CICC: The CPI of the United States rose as scheduled in November, but it did not hinder the interest rate cut. CICC released a research report saying that the CPI and core CPI of the United States both rose to 0.31% in November, which was basically in line with the market and its expectations. For the post-election policies, if the immigration and tariff policies are too radical, it will bring pressure to inflation at the end of next year, which will have an impact on the market and even the mid-term elections. Therefore, before the mid-term elections, due to the "realistic constraints" of inflation, the inflation policy will be faster, but the scope may be limited, while the growth policy will be faster, and then the overall assets will still be positive. According to the difference between the natural interest rate and the real interest rate, CICC estimates that after the interest rate cut in December, there may still be two or three interest rate cuts in 2025, with the end point of interest rate cut at 3.5-3.75% and the center corresponding to long-term US debt at 3.8-4%.The US dollar index rose more than 0.2%, and the Japanese yen once rose to 151. The Canadian dollar almost retreated the increase since the Bank of Canada cut interest rates. In late new york on Wednesday (December 11th), the ICE dollar index rose by 0.25% to 106.663 points, which was as low as 106.268 points at 10:56 Beijing time, and then as high as 106.806 points at 18:11. USD/JPY rose 0.34% to 152.47 yen, and the intraday trading range was 151.02-152.82 yen. At 17:11, the daily low was refreshed and instantly reversed. When the US CPI data was released, the daily high was refreshed.Brazil raised the benchmark lending rate by 100 basis points to 12.25%. Brazil's central bank expects the next two meetings to raise interest rates by the same amount.


Market News: Most members of the US House of Representatives support the $895 billion national defense policy bill, and voting continues.Securities Daily: Vigorously boosting consumption is the focus of the current macro policy. The article said that consumption is the ballast stone for stable economic operation. However, we must also see that residents' consumer confidence still needs to be enhanced. Therefore, it is necessary to take multiple measures simultaneously, constantly consolidate the foundation of consumption growth, enhance residents' willingness and ability to consume, and promote the sustained recovery of the consumer market. First, increase residents' income through multiple channels and improve their spending power. Second, further support the trade-in of consumer goods. Third, promote the upgrading and expansion of service consumption. Promoting consumption is the main starting point for expanding domestic demand, and boosting consumption is the focus of macroeconomic policy. We firmly believe that with the continuous efforts of various policy initiatives, consumer confidence will continue to increase and consumption potential will continue to be released.The rhythm of "Shangxin" accelerates the issuance of public offering REITs exceeding 50 billion yuan during the year. This year, the pace of initial projects in the public offering REITs market has obviously accelerated. Up to now, the cumulative issuance scale during the year has exceeded 50 billion yuan. At the same time, the number of REITs fund managers in the whole market has increased to 25 fund institutions, and the breadth and depth of participation of relevant parties have continued to expand. Looking forward to 2025, institutional sources said that the construction of domestic REITs primary and secondary markets is expected to continue to advance. With the entry of more diversified assets and investor types, the market scale and activity are expected to further increase. (Economic Information Daily)


Most ETFs in the US stock market closed up, with semiconductor ETFs rising by over 2.4%, Broadcom by over 6.6% and NVIDIA by over 3.1%. On Wednesday (December 11th), semiconductor ETFs closed up by 2.45%, Internet stock index ETF rose by over 2%, global aviation ETF, optional consumer ETF, technology industry ETF and global technology stock index ETF rose by 1.81%-1.17%. Semiconductor concept stocks rose almost across the board, Broadcom rose by 6.63%, NVIDIA Double Long ETF rose by more than 6.1%, Laidisi Semiconductor rose by more than 5.9%, NVIDIA rose by 3.14%, while Intel, Cisco, stmicroelectronics ADR and Chipscreen fell by 0.2%-0.65%.The Jehad delegation will discuss the exchange of detainees with Israel. On the night of 11th local time, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (Jehad) said that the delegation including its Secretary-General Zeyad Nahara had arrived in Cairo. The delegation will discuss the latest progress of the agreement on the exchange of detainees with Israel and the ways to provide assistance to the Gaza Strip.Adobe's annual performance guidance was worse than expected, and its share price fell more than 5% after hours. Adobe's adjusted EPS in the fourth quarter was $4.81, and analysts expected $4.67. Revenue in the fourth quarter was $5.61 billion, and analysts expected $5.54 billion. It is estimated that the adjusted EPS in FY 2025 will be $20.20-$20.50, and analysts expect $20.52. The adjusted EPS in the first fiscal quarter is expected to be $4.95-$5.00, and analysts expect $4.95. Adobe's U.S. stocks fell 1.81% after hours-the decline then expanded to 5.40%, and rose 0.38% before the performance report was released.

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